Will rising tensions between US-Israel and Iran threaten crude oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz, putting India's fuel prices, imports, and economic stability at risk?
After a three-month slowdown, India's oil imports (already landed) from Russia bounced back in the first 15 days of October to 1.8 million barrels per day.
India's merchandise trade deficit widened to a record $41.68 billion in October, as gold imports trebled and outbound shipments registered their sharpest contraction in 14 months, according to data released by the commerce department.
India will restrict crude oil purchases from Russia as part of an agreement reached with the US in exchange for lower trade tariffs, sources said, adding imports will continue for now by refiners such as Nayara Energy, which have no other alternative source. US President Donald Trump announced overnight that the United States will cut the reciprocal tariff on imports of Indian goods to 18 per cent from 25 per cent under a broader bilateral understanding.
A 500 per cent tariff would effectively shut out India's goods and services exports to the US.
India and the European Union are set to announce on January 27 the conclusion of negotiations and finalisation of a free trade agreement, which is aimed at boosting economic ties between the two regions amid disruptions in global trade due to US tariffs, an official said.
'The immediate impact for India will be very minimal as the share of Venezuela in our total overseas production is very low.'
In a culture where children take up the profession of their father, her becoming a politician was seen as natural and acceptable.
Israel and the United States had a plan. Iran punched back. And now the Gulf is reeling, the world is beginning to feel the pain and, as on date, no one in Washington or Tel Aviv appears willing to admit that the punch has landed, notes Prem Panicker, continuing his must-read blog on the war in the Middle East.
New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon on Monday said the negotiations for a free trade agreement with India have been concluded.
India's goods exports rebounded in July after two months of contraction, with outbound shipments rising 7.3 per cent to $37.24 billion, led by a surge in exports to the United States before the country's reciprocal tariff kicked in and bolstered by a recovery in exports to other key markets.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to India this week aims to secure energy supplies, stabilise defence deliveries and ensure bilateral trade continues smoothly despite strong Western sanctions, GTRI said on Tuesday.
The fiscal tilt towards capex benefits companies in investment-related sectors like capital goods, defence equipment, engineering & construction and metal & mining. The planned cut in revenue expenditure will weigh on companies in consumption sectors like FMCG, consumer durables and retail.
Merchandise exports to the US jumped 23.5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to $8.3 billion in June, even as India's overall outbound shipments witnessed contraction during the month, according to the data released by the commerce department on Tuesday. The increase in outbound shipments to the US was largely driven by the rush among exporters to utilise America's pause on its plans to impose country-specific reciprocal tariffs.
The Trump administration has sanctioned entities and individuals from India involved in sales of Iran's petroleum and petroleum products, saying the funds from this trade support Tehran's regional terrorist proxies and procure weapons systems that are a direct threat to the US.
Next week's three-nation foreign tour of Prime Minister Narendra Modi will see India and Oman sign a free trade deal. The visit will also pave the way for agreements with Ethiopia and Jordan to increase India's bilateral trade and investments.
India's smartphone exports surged nearly fivefold to the US and about fourfold to Japan in the past three years, propelling the segment to surpass petroleum products and diamonds as the country's top exported goods, according to government data. The smartphone exports rose by 55 per cent to $24.14 billion in 2024-25 from $15.57 billion in 2023-24 and $10.96 billion in 2022-23.
State-owned Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) is willing to dilute a 30-40 per cent stake in its upcoming greenfield refinery in Andhra Pradesh, with Gulf energy major Saudi Aramco and upstream player Oil India Ltd (OIL) likely to join as partners, a senior BPCL executive said.
After registering a positive growth for two months, India's exports slipped into negative territory again, contracting 2.17 per cent year-on-year to $38.73 billion in May due to a fall in global petroleum prices, while trade deficit narrowed at $21.88 billion during the month.
Despite a strong 7.8 per cent growth in the first quarter, the Indian economy is expected to grow at 6.5 per cent in the current financial year as the impact of US tariffs on Indian exports will reduce prospects, particularly in the second half, ADB said on Tuesday.
The latest decision of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, commonly known as Opec+, to boost output is being seen as an attempt to regain market share lost to the US, Brazil, and other oil producers, who have been increasing production recently.
Under the defence partnership, India and the UAE are eyeing defence industrial collaboration and cooperation in advanced technologies, cyberspace training, special operations, interoperability of their militaries and counter terrorism.
India's merchandise exports dipped by about one per cent to $38.01 billion in December 2024 against $38.39 billion a year ago, according to government data released on Wednesday. Imports increased by 4.8 per cent to $59.95 billion in December 2024 compared to $57.15 billion in the year-ago month.
The US government, under President Trump, justifies the intervention as a security necessity rather than a resource grab. The primary official reasons include: narco-terrorism charges, national security and migration crisis.
US sanctions against two of Russia's largest oil companies are expected to impact Reliance Industries' crude imports from Russia, while state-run refiners may continue purchases through intermediary traders for now.
The Iran-Israel conflict has further increased global economic uncertainties, impacting world trade, including India's exports, as it is expected to drive up both air and sea freight rates, exporters say. They said that India's exports to Europe and counters like Russia may get impacted due to this war.
India's exports declined for the fourth month in a row in February to $36.91 billion due to volatility in petroleum prices and global uncertainties. The country's exports stood at $41.41 billion in the same month a year ago.
'Crude oil prices are around $66-67 per barrel now but could fall to $55-60 if global disturbances ease.'
Indian rupee slipping below the record 88 level against the US dollar will enhance price competitiveness of Indian products in global markets and help exporters diversify beyond the US market, say exporters. However, import-dependent sectors such as gems and jewellery, petroleum and electronics may see lower benefits due to a rise in input costs, they stated.
India is set to reduce its direct imports of Russian crude from late November, following new US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, effective November 21.
India's exports grew marginally by 0.7 per cent to $41.97 billion in March, while the trade deficit stood at $21.54 billion in the month, the latest government data showed on Tuesday.
Sanctioning Russian oil would have led to a sharp surge in oil prices to above $80 per barrel levels, which would impact pump prices in the US ahead of midterm elections next year.
India's exports rose 9.03 per cent to $38.49 billion in April, the highest in six months, driven by healthy growth in sectors such as electronics and engineering goods, while the trade deficit widened to a five-month high of $26.42 billion. According to the commerce ministry data released on Thursday, imports increased by 19.12 per cent year-on-year to $64.91 billion in April due to a rise in shipments of crude oil and fertiliser.
'The US is strongly placed to expand its crude supplies to India.'
The trade war between the US and China is expected to benefit Indian exporters in increasing their shipments to the American market, sources said. They said the country was the fourth-largest gainer when the US imposed higher duties on Chinese goods during US President Donald Trump's first tenure.
The crisis may not be as visible this time, but the stakes are just as high, points out Rajeswari Sengupta.
India's brittle energy security is inextricably linked to two opposing paradigms - fossil fuels, and the transition to green energy. The first powers the present; the second paves the way for Viksit Bharat in 2047.
'What we need to watch is how Saudi Arabia's financial assistance will be used by Pakistan. If the funds go to build their military hardware and operations, it should worry us.'
US President Donald Trump has announced a 25 per cent plus tariff on India from Aug 1. Trump, describing India as a "friend", said the US has done relatively "little business" with the country because of its high tariffs.
Since items in the 12% category account for only about 5% of total GST, the additional boost to consumption may not be significant, points out M Govinda Rao.
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