India's exports declined for the fourth month in a row in February to $36.91 billion due to volatility in petroleum prices and global uncertainties. The country's exports stood at $41.41 billion in the same month a year ago.
India is set to reduce its direct imports of Russian crude from late November, following new US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, effective November 21.
Sanctioning Russian oil would have led to a sharp surge in oil prices to above $80 per barrel levels, which would impact pump prices in the US ahead of midterm elections next year.
India's exports grew marginally by 0.7 per cent to $41.97 billion in March, while the trade deficit stood at $21.54 billion in the month, the latest government data showed on Tuesday.
India's exports rose 9.03 per cent to $38.49 billion in April, the highest in six months, driven by healthy growth in sectors such as electronics and engineering goods, while the trade deficit widened to a five-month high of $26.42 billion. According to the commerce ministry data released on Thursday, imports increased by 19.12 per cent year-on-year to $64.91 billion in April due to a rise in shipments of crude oil and fertiliser.
The crisis may not be as visible this time, but the stakes are just as high, points out Rajeswari Sengupta.
India's brittle energy security is inextricably linked to two opposing paradigms - fossil fuels, and the transition to green energy. The first powers the present; the second paves the way for Viksit Bharat in 2047.
'What we need to watch is how Saudi Arabia's financial assistance will be used by Pakistan. If the funds go to build their military hardware and operations, it should worry us.'
'The US is strongly placed to expand its crude supplies to India.'
Since items in the 12% category account for only about 5% of total GST, the additional boost to consumption may not be significant, points out M Govinda Rao.
The trade war between the US and China is expected to benefit Indian exporters in increasing their shipments to the American market, sources said. They said the country was the fourth-largest gainer when the US imposed higher duties on Chinese goods during US President Donald Trump's first tenure.
US President Donald Trump has announced a 25 per cent plus tariff on India from Aug 1. Trump, describing India as a "friend", said the US has done relatively "little business" with the country because of its high tariffs.
If India caves in to US pressure as Trump hopes it will, he will further try to blackmail it into submission, points out Ramesh Menon.
Reliance Industries Ltd has consistently remained compliant with international sanctions and is expected to adhere to upcoming measures on Russian oil, analysts said, estimating that oil sourced from Russia contributes just 2.1 per cent to its consolidated EBITDA. Reliance operates the world's largest single location refining complex, with more than half of the capacity exclusively dedicated for exports.
"India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian Oil, they are then, for much of the Oil purchased, selling it on the Open Market for big profits," Trump said in a social media post on Monday.
'Trump is good news for us. Energy poverty is real, and fossil fuels are the answer.'
India's annual oil import bill could rise by $9-11 billion if the country is compelled to move away from Russian crude in response to US threats of additional tariffs or penalties on Indian exports, analysts said. India, the world's third-largest oil consumer and importer, has reaped significant benefits by swiftly substituting market-priced oil with discounted Russian crude following Western sanctions on Moscow after its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar defends India's purchase of Russian oil, stating it is not the largest purchaser and that the US had previously supported such actions to stabilize energy markets. He also addresses concerns about tariffs and trade relations with the US.
'India did not surrender. That was why he wanted to pressurise India by this 25% tariffs.'
'While the President has been critical of India, he has gone out of his way to compliment PM Modi. They have an incredible relationship.'
Gor underlined that President Trump has a "deep friendship" with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and that is something that is unique.
The way to deal with a bully is to resist bullying, because submission in the first instance only invites even more overbearing demands in future. What may seem like a small price to pay now will lead to a much higher price later, warns former foreign secretary Shyam Saran.
The trade relationship between India and the United States has been strained by the imposition of 25% tariff by the US on Indian goods.
'Geopolitically and diplomatically it's a very difficult situation for India.'
Billionaire Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries has retained its position as the highest-ranked Indian company on the 2025 Fortune Global 500 list, according to the latest rankings released by the publication. The oil-to-telecom-and-retail conglomerate has been ranked at No.88 on the latest list, down from 86th position in 2024.
Cooking oil is often discarded after being used for frying at home or in restaurants. However, a refinery of IndianOil has now won a certification to use the same oil to produce sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), the company chairman Arvinder Singh Sahney said.
India's merchandise exports in October rose by 17.25 per cent to $39.2 billion against $33.43 billion a year ago, according to government data released on Thursday. Imports increased by 3.9 per cent to $66.34 billion in October compared to $63.86 billion in the year-ago period.
India's major imports from the US include crude oil and petroleum products, gold and jewellery, plastics, aircraft, and electrical machinery and components. The key exports to the US comprise pharmaceuticals and biologicals, telecom equipment, precious and semi-precious stones, petroleum products, gold and precious metal jewellery, and ready-made garments.
Exports to eight out of India's top 10 destinations, including the Netherlands, the United States (US) and the United Kingdom (UK), witnessed positive growth during the first six months of FY25, despite muted global demand amid geopolitical challenges, commerce department data showed.
The US remained India's largest trading partner for the fourth consecutive year in 2024-25 with bilateral trade valued at $131.84 billion, while the country's trade deficit with China widened to $99.2 billion during the same period, government data showed. In the last fiscal, India's exports to China contracted 14.5 per cent to $14.25 billion as against $16.66 billion in 2023-24. The imports, however, rose by 11.52 per cent in 2024-25 to $113.45 billion against $101.73 billion in 2023-24.
US strikes on Iran's three main nuclear facilities have once again raised concerns that Tehran might shut down the Strait of Hormuz - one of the world's most critical chokepoints, through which a fifth of global oil and gas supply flows.
Snapping the two months slide, the country's merchandise exports rose marginally by 0.5 per cent to $34.58 billion in September while trade deficit narrowed to $20.78 billion. According to official data released on Wednesday, imports increased by 1.6 per cent to $55.36 billion in September compared to $54.49 billion in the year-ago period. The trade deficit, or the gap between imports and exports, was $20.8 billion during the same month last year.
The official said there are both challenges and opportunities for India as many of its competitor countries in exports, such as China Vietnam, Bangladesh, Cambodia and Thailand, face higher duties.
These duties will come into force from April 9.
Rising export of petroleum products helped Commerce Minister Kamal Nath meet 96 per cent of the targeted $160 billion worth of exports in 2007-08, but it could not contain the country's net oil import bill. The net oil import bill in 2007-08 is likely to rise by around 41 per cent over 2006-07 as the country's refineries consumed 9 per cent more crude oil to meet surging demand even as crude oil prices rose nearly 53 per cent during the year.
'We need to be very vigilant as we are passing through some fraught times.'
The Indian industry is paranoid about the USA's plan to impose reciprocal tariffs and wants early conclusion of a bilateral trade agreement, sources said on Wednesday. They said that the talks for the proposed bilateral trade agreement are going well.
Smartphones have been a key success story of the government's production-linked incentive scheme, helping India become the second-largest mobile phone manufacturing country, after China.
Domestic exporters on Monday expressed concerns over the crisis in Bangladesh and said the developments in the neighbouring country would have implications on bilateral trade. However, exporters expect that the situation may normalise soon. According to exporters, they are already facing disruptions in exports to Bangladesh due to a shortage of foreign exchange in that country.
The Trump trade shock is a chance to push long-overdue reforms, rather than tinker with tariffs to appease the US, suggests M Govinda Rao.
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